Sunday, December 22, 2013
Rauner victory in Cook County gives him the “Big Mo” moving into March GOP Primary battle
Rauner victory
in Cook County gives him the “Big Mo” moving into March GOP Primary battle
Gorman gives
Rauner the “Big Mo” in Republican battle for governor
The media is
focused on what they say is the “big story,” that the Cook County Republicans
finally rallied behind a candidate for governor for the first time in anyone’s
memory.
The Cook
County GOP overwhelming backed wealthy Winnetka businessman Bruce Rauner for
Governor in the Republican Primary on March 18, 2014.
But the real
story may be about Rauner himself and a critical error on the part of Kirk
Dillard, a great candidate who might have become governor four years ago had he
been able to defeat Bill Brady, who went on to lose to Pat Quinn.
Rauner may be
new to politics, an independently wealthy businessman who has committed his
resources to this race. But he showed that he probably knows more about
Illinois politics than the so-called veterans like Dillard and even Dan
Rutherford.
In seeking to
win the backing of the Cook County Republicans, and thus giving himself a
public relations victory – perception has a lot to do with victory in Illinois
– Rauner was smart enough to approach Cook County Commissioner and Orland Township GOP Committeeman Elizabeth “Liz” Doody Gorman for her support.
It was a
strategic move considering that Cook County represents 21 percent of the
Republican vote in Illinois. In the 2010 GOP Primary, more than 765,000
Republicans voted with 162,000 of them casting ballots in Cook County.
It was a fatal
mistake on Dillard’s part to turn to the North Side Republican extremists for
support and not go to Gorman, who backed Dillard so many times in the past.
The Cook
County GOP has not endorsed a candidate for governor in years. They didn’t
endorse Big Jim Thompson, one of the state’s most successful and popular
governors. And they didn’t endorse Mr. Politics himself, George Ryan who threw
poor political alliances and choices sent himself to prison for six years on
corruption charges, only to be released this year.
But in the
battle to defeat Gov. Pat Quinn, whose popularity has soared on the backs of
several key issues from his marksmen-like play to push for pension reform and
his undying support for Illinois’ military veterans, you have to be especially
smart.
Rauner,
apparently, is the only one who apparently is thinking ahead.
Dillard had the
support of Ruth O’Connell from Wheeling, a well known foe of Gorman and a foe of
the equally popular Illinois Comptroller Judy Barr Topinka. Dillard put all his
eggs in O’Connell’s basket and watched as they all cracked wide open, winning a
mere 10.2 percent of the Republican vote at the Cook County GOP meeting.
Rutherford,
the Illinois Treasurer who is an amiably and as capable candidate like
Dillard, also made a critical mistake by not approaching Gorman for her
support. He won 5 percent of the Cook County vote.
Both Dillard
and Rutherford made a critical mistake, but more so Dillard. Rauner, with
Gorman’s backing and the backing of Committeeman Sean Morrison, won a whopping
63.3 percent of the vote.
It was
unprecedented, but may give us a peek into the course of the Republican primary
battle in the coming months.
Bill Brady, by
the way, who won the Republican primary for governor four years ago, got nothing
in Cook County. Brady got “zero” voter support in Cook County, which is the
second biggest story to come out of the party leadership vote.
You could only
imagine that had Dillard turned to Gorman in Cook County, he not only would
have won the Cook County endorsement and would be riding high on the wave of
publicity that Rauner is now enjoying. But he would probably have taken the
party nomination this time around.
Dillard has
always had appeal to moderate Democrats, in much the same way as the late
President Ronald Reagan. Many Democrats in Chicagoland, especially in the
Southwest region, viewed themselves as “Reagan Democrats.” They voted
Democratic locally but Republican nationally. Some of that Republican
inclination also helped Republicans win in local regional races in the
legislature, too.
But we’ll
never probably know, though. Gorman has proven to be one of Illinois’ most
popular Republicans over the years because of her fierce allegiance to
taxpayers. And Rauner won her support simply by showing respect.
It’s something
Rauner will be able to use to empower his campaign, probably giving It a burst
of momentum that might be tough to stop as we round the corner to the primary
in the next few months.
That’s not to
say that Quinn will be an easy candidate to defeat. For Quinn, Rauner’s “Big
Mo” might help him keep the conservative Democrats from jumping ship for
someone like Dillard. That won’t happen now and Quinn can count on conservative
Democrats to stand with the party in March and for sure in November.
But Rauner
winning Gorman’s backing might still give him an opportunity to carve out a
strategy to appeal to Cook County voters who in every election have backed
Gorman in landslide turnouts.
Gorman and
Morrison have become the key Republican leaders in Cook County. You have to
wonder about any Illinois politician who couldn’t see that a mile away, or who
thought there is a better strategy in some nook and cranny up in northern Cook
County.
Cook County
Party Chairman Aaron Del Mar, who is a close Gorman ally, told the media his
plan is to change the party and have them back the strongest candidates, rather
than keep playing inside favorites. Del Mar noted this is the first time Cook
County Republicans have stood up to become major players in a statewide race.
Gorman is also
backing Jim Oberweiss in the U.S. Senate battle, a tough uphill fight against
incumbent U.S. Senator Dick Durbin.
Rauner’s
strong campaign war chest will only benefit all of the Republican candidates
running in Illinois. He’s come out swinging with a battery of campaign
commercials that have defined him as a moderate Republican and successful
businessman in a state, he says, needs business smarts.
END
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